CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION!
CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION!
CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION!
It seems like I keep shouting that phrase at my television and radio. I'm sick and tired of people abusing statistics to make rhetorical points. And I'm not just talking about politicians, it's everywhere. Take just about any stance on just about any issue, and you'll find someone claiming that because X and Y happened, X causes Y. It's bad logic, and it's pissing me off.
The universe is filled with coincidences and third causes. Ignoring them will not make them go away.
12 comments:
So what was the issue that made you type this post? What was the tipping point? I'm just curious.
It's more of an accumulation over time than any one issue, but the last one I can remember had something to do with graduation rates and computers.
I can't remember it exactly, but a simplified version went somthing like this:
One person said that getting your kid their own computer was a problem because it distracted them from schoolwork.
But the other person cited a study that showed children who grow up in homes with multiple computers are more likely to graduate high school. Therefore its a good thing to get your kids their own computer (or at least not bad)
Not that I think getting a kid their own computer is a bad idea, but I yelled at the second guy because multiple computers in the home probably has nothing to do with high school graduation rates.
Hmmm...I'm confused.
You say "the other person cited a study that showed children who grow up in homes with multiple computers are more likely to graduate high school."
But then you say, "I yelled at the second guy because multiple computers in the home probably has nothing to do with high school graduation rates."
Are you saying that the study cannot definitively prove the multiple computers affected the rates of graduation of students, or that multiple computers alone are not the only- or primary- reason students have a higher graduation rate?
The study shows there is a correlation between multiple computers in the home and graduation rates.
CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION.
More than likely there is a third cause: money. Affluent families are more likely to raise children that will graduate from high school, and affluent families are more likely to have multiple computers in the home. We should expect to see those results in a study, and we did. But the study tells us nothing about causes.
Try this: children who are raised in homes with five or more kitchen appliances are more likely to graduate from high school.
(I haven't seen a study for this, but I bet it's true)
It's easy to see that a toaster-oven and a blender are not responsible for increased graduation rates, even though there is a correlation. Again, the cause of both is money.
So multiple computers- or toasters and blenders- are not the primary reason (cause) for higher graduation rates. Like I said! See, I got it.
At school during our faculty meetins we sometimes get presented with monthly data about suspension and office referral numbers. They'll put it in a nice Excel table and compare it to the last five years. Lately we've been having less suspensions (compared to year's past), and our administration is using the dat to tell us how much better behaved the kids are- despite no teacher feeling that way.
What bothers me is that is an incorrect correllation and not the cause for the lower rates. The reason we have lower suspension rates is because the administration does not suspend kids anymore. They do other alternative methods, like Saturday school, or a behavior room in-school. This is all in an effort to keep attendance rates high, so we can meet AYP, and thus not have our staff all gutted. But that's the main cause for lower suspension rates, not better behavior!
Anyway, I don't think I get worked up about it as much as you, but I do see it out there, and it does bother me, so I'm with you.
Haha, it's the bad logic that gets me worked up more than any particular issue.
Next meeting you should propose a policy that prohibits teachers/administrators from giving any suspensions at all.
That way, you'll have a suspension rate of 0% and therefore the best-behaved students in the nation!
There's no way I could present that without sounding like a complete smart-ass and getting on the wrong side of the administration =).
Haha, being a smart-ass is the point.
I would say that Catch-22 is being a bad influence on me.....but I think you would agree I've been advocating smart-assness (smart-assery? smart-asshood?) for a long time.
Oh, most definitely.
And I think you'd take great satisfaction in not only influencing me to be a smart-ass, but also the reaction it would spawn from the administration.
But, to be honest, I'd enjoy both of those things, too =).
I used to be such a nice boy before I met you...
I need to improve my IQ. I am going to buy an espresso machine.
I think another issue is misappropriated frustration due to ignorance.
My two current pet peeve examples:
1. People who connect a large number of snowstorms to their belief that global warming doesn't exist. (global warming leads to dramatic changes in weather so intense snow storms actually are evidence of it!)
2. People who complain about the high price of gas and blame the oil companies' record profits. (oil is a commodity and the price is set globally - oil companies just refine and distribute it!)
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